With hurricane season already underway, Ken Graham of the
National Weather Service (NWS) made a presentation about hurricane preparedness
at a recent Washington Parish Government meeting.
Graham, the meteorologist in charge of the NWS in
Slidell, said he makes these presentations to 22 parishes and 8 counties in
Mississippi to make sure people are reminded and aware of the dangers of
hurricanes and what his office does to assist the public. He stated that the
NWS works closely with local emergency preparedness managers to stay connected
to communities during all weather-related times.
"Preparing for a hurricane is tricky because you're
almost fighting some of your preconceived notions," said Graham.
"Every one of the categories for hurricanes is different; you can't just
base it on winds. It could be rain, storm surge, tornadoes. You have to pay
attention to everything like that."
"The National Hurricane Center sends us all these
different (hurricane) models and blends them together to attract. It's our job
to put together what the impact will be for Washington Parish. That's our role
and we convey that through the emergency managers here. All parishes have
briefings and the charts and information you see, that's us behind the
scenes."
Graham stated that the upcoming hurricane season is
projected to be below average, but cautioned everyone not to let their guard
down. "We are forecasting a below average season because of El Niño. The
forecast you see is not a forecast for landfall. That's a forecast for the
whole Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. It only takes one," said Graham.
According to Graham, Hurricane Audrey in 1957 was a
Category 4 storm in an El Niño year. Hurricane Betsy in 1965 was an El Niño
year. Hurricane Andrew was a slight of an El Niño year.
"There weren't a lot of hurricanes in any of those
years but it just took the one to get us."
The World Meteorological Association in Geneva puts
together the names of hurricanes each year.
In 2005, Graham said that The Weather Service ran out of
names and had to go to the Greek alphabet. In 2010, The Weather Service almost
ran out of names again. "We don't remember 2010 though because it didn't
affect us."
Last season only eight hurricanes formed and all of them
went into the Atlantic.
"All you have to do is shift the Bermuda high to the
West about 400-500 miles and every one of them would have gotten into the Gulf
of Mexico. It would've been an historic season," said Graham.
Graham said he has briefed the Coast Guard and challenged
them to take all of their preconceived notions and plans and cut the time in
half. He also asked the Parish Government to do the same.
"I've heard of 80 hour plans, 90 hour plans, 120
hour plans and even working on 200 hours. You're not going to get it. Unless
something comes off of the African coast and travels all the way across the
Atlantic, you're not going to get that kind of timing (to prepare)."
Hurricane Audrey wasn't named until 48 hours before the
Category 4 storm struck Louisiana. In 1969, Hurricane Camille didn't get a name
until 80 hours before landfall. In 2003, Tropical Storm Bill wasn't named until
72 hours before making landfall and dropping large amounts of rainfall over the
area. Bill caused over $50 million in damages while being responsible for four
deaths along its path. Hurricane Cindy barely reached Category 1 status but
drenched South Louisiana with a tremendous amount of water. Hurricane Cindy
didn't even exist 72 hours before landfall, but ended up causing a severe
blackout in New Orleans along with three deaths along its path even though
being downgraded shortly after landfall.
"We're better than we used to be, but we can only
put out a warning and a forecast if it exist" stated Graham. "I
really encourage everybody to get in a room with the plan you have and cut the
time in half and see what happens."
Graham said the National Weather Service has new
technology available this season that will provide more information. An
Inundation Map has an accuracy of 90% probability of being accurate those
values or less. There's also a new prototype storm surge warning product. This
also includes river warnings which are also issued through the NWS.
The National Weather Service started in 1870 at the US
Customs House on Canal Street in New Orleans. Graham said the Inundation Map
had more public input during its creation than any other product in NWS
history.
"Once we put out a map or a warning, you'll have a
map like this (Inundation Map) to look at. We will put the map out at 48 hours or
below."
Graham also highly encouraged tourist and school groups
to tour the National Weather Service office in Slidell. The office is located
by the Slidell airport. He stated that "we launch a weather balloon twice
a day and the kids really get a kick out of that".
He also stated that the NWS in Slidell is one of the few
offices where you can call 24 hours a day and reach a live meteorologist to
receive weather reports with everyone being trained to give a consistent
message.
"The President of United States gets the same
briefing as anybody else," said Graham. "We've taken that very
seriously since Katrina."
Hurricane season began June 1 and runs through November
30.
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